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Week starting September 1, 2013

SPX between 55ema and lower band - no mans land...
Break above 55ema together with buy-signal in the VO (Terry Laundrys volume oscillator in NYUD) will be a buy-signal
Or some kind of an oversold condition at/below the lower band ~1600 may be a buying opportunity

Lets see if I can build a case for either of those two...

VO setting up an accumulation pattern, that can lead to a potential buy signal
But could just as well break down further - wait mode



I do of course allready have a bias... for something like this



Internals:
Put/call-ratio still not high, not confirming a low yet
TRIN getting oversold, but still has room to go

Pattern:
Scenario from momentum top + price top, based on 10 analogs since 1996, suggest a September low near the June lows 1550-1600



cycles:
not a precision tool, but suggest weakness first half of September, into November and early January



Conclusion:
for low risk trading (primarely long/cash) it is wait mode (cash)
Internals, pattern and cycles suggest a September low ~1600 or lower